Jeff Allen

Abstract - Millions of North Americans stopped riding public transit in response to COVID-19. We treat this crisis as a natural experiment to illustrate the importance of public transit in riders’ abilities to access essential destinations. We measured the impacts of riders forgoing transit through a survey of transportation barriers completed by more than 4,000 transit riders in Toronto and Vancouver (Canada). We used Heckman selection models to predict six dimensions of transport disadvantage and transport-related social exclusions captured in our survey. We then complemented model results with an analysis of survey comments describing barriers that individuals faced. Lack of access to alternative modes is the strongest predictor of a former rider experiencing transport disadvantage, particularly neighborhood walkability and vehicle ownership. Groups at risk of transport disadvantage before COVID-19, particularly women and people in poorer health, were also more likely to report difficulties while avoiding public transit. Barriers described by respondents included former supports no longer offering rides, gendered household car use dynamics, and lack of culturally specific or specialized amenities within walking distance.

Abstract - Food banks provide an essential lifeline for those experiencing food insecurity. In Toronto, Canada, 21 new food bank locations opened between February, 2020 and May, 2021 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we measure and map how this has improved public transit accessibility to food banks, with a focus on improvements among low-income residents. We find that the percent of low-income residents that can reach a food bank within a 20 minute one-way transit trip improved from 50% to 60% during this time period.

Abstract - Dot maps are often used to display the distributions of populations over space. This paper details a method for extending dot maps in order to visualize changes in spatial patterns over time. Specifically, we outline a selective linear interpolation procedure to encode the time range in which dots are visible on a map, which then allows for temporal queries and animation. This methodology is exemplified first by animating population growth across the United States, and second, through an interactive application showing changing poverty distributions in Toronto, Canada.

Abstract - Transportation equity advocates recommend improving public transit in low-income neighbourhoods to alleviate socio-spatial inequalities and increase quality of life. However, transportation planners often overlook transit investments in neighbourhoods with “transit-captive” populations because they are assumed to result in less mode-shifting, congestion relief, and environmental benefits, compared to investments that aim to attract choice riders in wealthier communities. In North American cities, while many low-income households are already transit users, some also own and use private vehicles. It suggests that transit improvements in low-income communities could indeed result in more transit use and less car use. Accordingly, the main objective of this article is to explore the statistical relationship between transit use and transit accessibility as well as how this varies by household income and vehicle ownership in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). Using stratified regression models, we find that low-income households with one or more cars per adult have the most elastic relationship between transit accessibility and transit use; they are more likely to be transit riders if transit improves. However, we confirm that in auto-centric areas with poor transit, the transit use of low-income households drops off sharply as car ownership increases. On the other hand, a sensitivity analysis suggests more opportunities for increasing transit ridership among car-deficit households when transit is improved. These findings indicate that improving transit in low-income inner suburbs, where most low-income car-owning households are living, would align social with environmental planning goals.

Abstract - Many cities have undergone spatial re-distributions of low-income populations from central to suburban neighborhoods over the past several decades. A potential negative impact of these trends is that low-income populations are concentrating in more automobile oriented areas and thus resulting in increased barriers to daily travel and activity participation, particularly for those who are unable to afford a private vehicle. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to analyze the links between increasing socio-spatial inequalities, transport disadvantage, and adverse travel behaviour outcomes. This is examined first from a theoretical perspective, and second via a spatio-temporal analysis for the Toronto region from 1991 to 2016. Findings show that many suburban areas in Toronto are not only declining in socioeconomic status, but are also suffering from increased barriers to daily travel evidenced by longer commute times and decreasing activity participation rates, relative to central neighborhoods. Because of these adverse effects, this evidence further supports the need for progressive planning and policy aimed at curbing continuing trends of suburbanization of poverty while also improving levels of transport accessibility in the suburbs.

Abstract - Assessing whether the benefits of proposed public transit projects are fairly distributed across population groups is increasingly becoming an important part of transit planning practice. In this paper, we outline and exemplify a procedure for evaluating the equity impacts of a new transit line. Specifically, this procedure incorporates census-based socio-economic data and the output of travel demand models to examine the distribution of benefits across a comprehensive set of outcomes: access to transit stations, access to destinations by transit, travel times, and transit travel demand. This procedure is focused on low-income and other low-SES populations who arguably have the greatest need for transit improvements. Importantly, our procedure incorporates a sensitivity analysis to account for the possibility of increased income segregation or transit-induced gentrification on future equity outcomes of the transit line. This is exemplified for the Ontario Line, a proposed rapid transit project in Toronto, Canada. The main finding, consistent across most facets of the analysis, is that the benefits of the Ontario Line are forecasted to be fairly evenly spread across all levels of socioeconomic status in the region, with modest concentrations specifically among low-income populations.

Abstract - Social equity is increasingly becoming an important objective in transport planning and project evaluation. This paper provides a framework and an empirical investigation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) examining the links between public transit accessibility and the risks of social exclusion, simply understood as the suppressed ability to conduct daily activities at normal levels. Specifically, we use a large-sample travel survey to present a new transport-geography concept termed participation deserts, neighbourhood-level clusters of lower than expected activity participation. We then use multivariate models to estimate where, and for whom, improvements in transit accessibility will effectively increase activity participation and reduce risks of transport-related social exclusion. Our results show that neighbourhoods with high concentrations of low-income and zero-car households located outside of major transit corridor sare the most sensitive to having improvements in accessibility increase daily activity participation rates. We contend that transit investments providing better connections to these neighbourhoods would have the greatest benefit in terms of alleviating existing inequalities and reducing the risks of social exclusion. The ability for transport investments to liberate suppressed activity participation is not currently being predicted or valued in existing transport evaluation methodologies, but there is great potential in doing so in order to capture the social equity benefits associated with increasing transit accessibility.

Abstract - Vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) has been widely used in regional planning as a key sustainability performance indicator. Many regional growth plans for reducing work trip VKT have been proposed, with a focus on land use development in employment centers. Despite the potential impact of urban form on the reduction of VKT, the fundamentals of how this takes place remain unclear. This study analyzes the relationship between urban form, VKT, and mode shares by examining office commuting patterns in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) through a structural equation modeling approach. The model supports the substantial impact of urban form on the reduction of VKT; however, it indicates that such an impact is made mostly through shifting modes, rather than directly on reduced travel distances. This model is then used to evaluate critically a regional growth plan for the GTHA, finding that strategies focusing solely on increasing land use densities in employment centers are not likely to reduce regional VKT significantly without also easing commuting auto dependency. Thus, it is recommended that more sustainable travel alternatives for workers in employment centers should be provided to achieve a sufficient reduction in VKT.

Abstract - Policymakers in cities worldwide are trying to determine how ride-hailing services affect the ridership of traditional forms of public transportation. The level of convenience and comfort that these services provide is bound to take riders away from transit, but by operating in areas, or at times, when transit is less frequent, they may also be filling a gap left vacant by transit operations. These contradictory effects reveal why we should not merely categorize all ride-hailing services as a substitute or supplement to transit, and demonstrate the need to examine ride-hailing trips individually. Using data from the 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey in Toronto, we investigate the differences in travel-times between observed ride-hailing trips and their fastest transit alternatives. Ordinary least squares and ordered logistic regressions are used to uncover the characteristics that influence travel-time differences. We find that ride-hailing trips contained within the City of Toronto, pursued during peak hours, or for shopping purposes, are more likely to have transit alternatives of similar duration. Also, we find differences in travel-time often to be caused by transfers and lengthy walk- and wait-times for transit. Our results further indicate that 31% of ride-hailing trips in our sample have transit alternatives of similar duration (≤15 minute difference). These are particularly damaging for transit agencies as they compete directly with services that fall within reasonable expectations of transit service levels. We also find that 27% of ride-hailing trips would take at least 30 minutes longer by transit, evidence for significant gap-filling opportunity of ride-hailing services. In light of these findings, we discuss recommendations for ride-hailing taxation structures.

Abstract - Accessibility is now a common way to measure the benefits provided by transportation-land use systems. Despite its widespread use, few measurement options allow for the comparison of accessibility across multiple urban systems, and most do not adequately control for market competition between demand-side actors and supply-side facilities in localized markets. In this paper we develop a measure of competitive access to destinations that can be used to accurately compare accessibility between regions. This measure stems from spatial interaction modelling and accounts for competition at both the supply and demand sides of analysis, regional differences in transportation networks and travel behaviour, and any imbalance between the size of the population and the number of opportunities. We use this method to compute access to employment for Canada’s eight largest cities to comparatively examine inequalities in accessibility, both within and between cities, and by travel mode.

Abstract - Bike lane projects on retail streets have proved contentious among merchant associations in North America, especially when they reduce on-street parking. A limited but growing number of studies, however, detect neutral to positive consequences for merchants following bike lane implementation. In 2016, the City of Toronto (Canada) removed 136 on-street parking spots and installed a pilot bike lane on a stretch of Bloor Street, a downtown retail corridor. Using a case–control and pre–post design, we surveyed merchants and shoppers to understand the impacts of the bike lanes on economic activities. We find no negative economic impacts associated with the bike lanes: Monthly customer spending and number of customers served by merchants both increased on Bloor Street during the pilot. Our findings are consistent with an improving economic environment at the intervention site. Downtown retail strips may therefore be suited to tolerate bike lanes and even benefit from increased retail activity. Pre and post surveys can provide valuable insights into local economic impacts of streetscape changes affecting merchants along city streets, especially where access to sales data is limited.

Abstract - We compute a series of benchmarks and key performance indicators (KPIs) that describe the state of transport equity in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area(GTHA). These measures are designed to be simple to interpret, have clear normative interpretations, and be easily replicable in future survey waves or for other regions.